While I agree that complexity means that we can’t predict what’s going to happen when we make a change. But not having certainty does not mean there aren’t forces we have to attend to. It’s like driving. While complex, driving on the correct side of the road makes what happens both more predictable and effective.
What we must be aware of is that we may not get what we expect to happen. This is not failing but rather an opportunity to learn about learning the relationships between the people and actions in our organization. Some we don’t see well and others don’t behave the way we expect. But by considering what should happen contrasted with what does, we learn about these relationships when we get unexpected behavior. We can then take action based on this new knowledge.
It’s not failing when we learn fast in this way. It’s how we get improvement in complex systems and those that can go off course because of small misunderstandings and mistakes. The key, of course, is feedback, continual learning and creating a model of how things work we are always suspicious of. If all you do is inspect and adapt without creating a model of what’s happening you lose the opportunity of increasing your understanding.
In my FLEX book I am building out such a model. Check it out at https://portal.netobjectives.com/pages/books/going-beyond-lean-and-agile/creating-a-roadmap-for-improvement/#ActionsThatHelp